Quote:
Originally Posted by Finnster
Its astounding, the mess we've worked ourselves into for the last 30 yrs. I bet 2009 will go down as one of the biggest wealth transfers in history.
I'm cautiously optimistic for 2010. What I am hoping to see is moderate eco and job growth starting in the next few months. Sounds like businesses have quite a bit of cash (the ones doing well at least) so there should be some interesting activity. I think the US eco will be fairly resiliant.
However, a few things to really watch for, or at least my predictions/guesses for 2010.
A.) Its an election year. Never underestimate the stupidity of politicians to screw things up (goes for any party) and sabotage a recovery for personal gain.
B.) Smaller world economies destabilizing. Greece, Spain, Iceland, etc. Greece had Goldman Sachs papering over their debt. Makes you wonder where else this will be discovered. Latvia sounds in a bad way too. Could be tip of an iceberg.
C.) The debt. I thought last yr Obama basically had two years to run the high deficits to try and get the eco going. We'll see how it works. No doubt tax increases, spending cuts and entitlement reform are coming next year. It will be as well recieved as the austerity cuts in Greece are being recieved now. It will also be up to Congress to make the cuts into law. It will be highly unpopular, and Congress is pretty disfunctional as it is just doing popular things.
D.) People and business are going to be pissed come 2011. Job growth is prolly going to be slow even best case scenario. Raising taxes and pension ages will not go down well. Not doing it will be even worse.
Overall, I am hopeful for 2010 as far as stocks go (dep on jobs/gdp growth.) As Nov comes around, I think things will get very dicey, and 2011 could be a very ugly year. IDK if I want to be in the market then (leaning towards no until the dust settles.) Lots of variables and unknowns can occur. I bet a lot a lot of other people will keep one hand on the exit door.
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Bad bad bad. I don't like things one bit. I waited for a bit of a rally in June from the bloodbath in May and sold out a good bit of my RL holdings to cash, such as in my 401k and stuff last week. I'm wishing now I sold more.
May be reactionary, but I don't like things at all. The things I was hoping to see above are not happening, (ie job/gdp growth.) The roots of the "green shoots" seem shallow and weak. I don't like the way the political winds are blowing either.
Maybe its dumb fleeing to cash, but it all seems too risky to me. I had hoped we might be able to escape history, with the bear market rallies and double dips such as in the 30's, but I'm worried its just not going to go. Better to have some cash for when we bottom out again and hopefully relive to bulls of 2009.