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08.06.2011, 10:52 PM
I'm actually thinking the bottom may be about near. Things suck, but this is not 2008.
What funny is this year has practically been a repeat of 2010. Big run up in spring, peak in April. Doldrums in the summer, late summer panic, and Sept 1 marked off a huge bull run thru Q1 of the next year. Honestly, quite a bit of my retirement investment strategy is going off of last year and so far the timing has been brilliant. I wish my short-term investments were going so good, but I think the limitations on selling (must hold 30 days) has worked but better for me, as I've been to early to buy and sell, so I keep missing most of the swings... anyway..
10 yr US treasuries also tanked in last Aug. I refi'ed my house then and the 10yr was 2.6% IIRC and everyone was freaking out about the double dip. As said, turned out to be the coming of a big bull.
The dow has come off a historically bad run. If we're breaking records now, I'm guessing the end is close. Who knows how the yr will play, depends on a lot of idiots with too much power, but looking for a reversal soon coming into Sept.
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