If you've already done the experimenting, then you also know what works/runs cool and what doesnt, so no real need to ask for advice. All you really need to know:
hot motor + cool esc + cool batts = undergeared.
cool motor + hot esc + hot batts = over geared.
Hot everything = way over geared.
Warm/cool everything = just right.
Like I said, a slightly larger spur gear would be good so you can use the larger pinions without being overgeared quite so much- hence the hot esc with 17/46. That said, I dont know if a larger spur is an option, so 15/46 sounds like it will be a happy medium.