Stock Market Game

[lutach]

The smell of money:

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work...lionaires-2010

Edit: Someone familiar is in 8th place .

[lutach]

Finnster,

Here are a few numbers for the Debt:

US National Debt: $12,516,4XX,XXX,XXX.XX
US Federal Spending: $3,538,8XX,XXX,XXX.XX

So far the Debt per Citizen is just over $40K and the Debt per Taxpayer is just over $114K.

Here's the shocker.

US Total Debt: $54,754,4XX,XXX,XXX.XX

(The X donates to the amount that might change daily).

Remember when I said watch the billionaires. Amazing how that Brasilian guy made over $19B. A few made over $10B which is amazing.

[Finnster]

Originally Posted by lutach

Finnster,

Here are a few numbers for the Debt:

US National Debt: $12,516,4XX,XXX,XXX.XX
US Federal Spending: $3,538,8XX,XXX,XXX.XX

So far the Debt per Citizen is just over $40K and the Debt per Taxpayer is just over $114K.

Here's the shocker.

US Total Debt: $54,754,4XX,XXX,XXX.XX

(The X donates to the amount that might change daily).

Remember when I said watch the billionaires. Amazing how that Brasilian guy made over $19B. A few made over $10B which is amazing.

Its astounding, the mess we've worked ourselves into for the last 30 yrs. I bet 2009 will go down as one of the biggest wealth transfers in history.


I'm cautiously optimistic for 2010. What I am hoping to see is moderate eco and job growth starting in the next few months. Sounds like businesses have quite a bit of cash (the ones doing well at least) so there should be some interesting activity. I think the US eco will be fairly resiliant.

However, a few things to really watch for, or at least my predictions/guesses for 2010.

A.) Its an election year. Never underestimate the stupidity of politicians to screw things up (goes for any party) and sabotage a recovery for personal gain.

B.) Smaller world economies destabilizing. Greece, Spain, Iceland, etc. Greece had Goldman Sachs papering over their debt. Makes you wonder where else this will be discovered. Latvia sounds in a bad way too. Could be tip of an iceberg.

C.) The debt. I thought last yr Obama basically had two years to run the high deficits to try and get the eco going. We'll see how it works. No doubt tax increases, spending cuts and entitlement reform are coming next year. It will be as well recieved as the austerity cuts in Greece are being recieved now. It will also be up to Congress to make the cuts into law. It will be highly unpopular, and Congress is pretty disfunctional as it is just doing popular things.

D.) People and business are going to be pissed come 2011. Job growth is prolly going to be slow even best case scenario. Raising taxes and pension ages will not go down well. Not doing it will be even worse.

Overall, I am hopeful for 2010 as far as stocks go (dep on jobs/gdp growth.) As Nov comes around, I think things will get very dicey, and 2011 could be a very ugly year. IDK if I want to be in the market then (leaning towards no until the dust settles.) Lots of variables and unknowns can occur. I bet a lot a lot of other people will keep one hand on the exit door.

[lutach]

Originally Posted by Finnster

Its astounding, the mess we've worked ourselves into for the last 30 yrs. I bet 2009 will go down as one of the biggest wealth transfers in history.


I'm cautiously optimistic for 2010. What I am hoping to see is moderate eco and job growth starting in the next few months. Sounds like businesses have quite a bit of cash (the ones doing well at least) so there should be some interesting activity. I think the US eco will be fairly resiliant.

However, a few things to really watch for, or at least my predictions/guesses for 2010.

A.) Its an election year. Never underestimate the stupidity of politicians to screw things up (goes for any party) and sabotage a recovery for personal gain.

B.) Smaller world economies destabilizing. Greece, Spain, Iceland, etc. Greece had Goldman Sachs papering over their debt. Makes you wonder where else this will be discovered. Latvia sounds in a bad way too. Could be tip of an iceberg.

C.) The debt. I thought last yr Obama basically had two years to run the high deficits to try and get the eco going. We'll see how it works. No doubt tax increases, spending cuts and entitlement reform are coming next year. It will be as well recieved as the austerity cuts in Greece are being recieved now. It will also be up to Congress to make the cuts into law. It will be highly unpopular, and Congress is pretty disfunctional as it is just doing popular things.

D.) People and business are going to be pissed come 2011. Job growth is prolly going to be slow even best case scenario. Raising taxes and pension ages will not go down well. Not doing it will be even worse.

Overall, I am hopeful for 2010 as far as stocks go (dep on jobs/gdp growth.) As Nov comes around, I think things will get very dicey, and 2011 could be a very ugly year. IDK if I want to be in the market then (leaning towards no until the dust settles.) Lots of variables and unknowns can occur. I bet a lot a lot of other people will keep one hand on the exit door.

If the real numbers (The actual known number) are posted, you can get a somewhat clear view of how deep it goes.

Official Unemployed: 14,909,693 (12:24 PM)
Actual Unemployed: 25,982,071 (12:24 PM)
Bankruptcies: 1,407,736 (12:24 PM)
Foreclosures: 857,700 (12:24 PM)

The Unemployed numbers would be much higher if the not legal to work was counted.

Also, some of the signs that things will take a while to get good is the problems with the Schools, Fire Fighter, Hospitals and all the Fed. jobs making more the $100K .

[Finnster]

Originally Posted by lutach

If the real numbers (The actual known number) are posted, you can get a somewhat clear view of how deep it goes.

Official Unemployed: 14,909,693 (12:24 PM)
Actual Unemployed: 25,982,071 (12:24 PM)
Bankruptcies: 1,407,736 (12:24 PM)
Foreclosures: 857,700 (12:24 PM)

The Unemployed numbers would be much higher if the not legal to work was counted.

Also, some of the signs that things will take a while to get good is the problems with the Schools, Fire Fighter, Hospitals and all the Fed. jobs making more the $100K .

lol
The state and local eco's might get battered too next yr as the support from the fed gov wanes. Things will be ugly for a while I think.

[lutach]

Originally Posted by Finnster

lol
The state and local eco's might get battered too next yr as the support from the fed gov wanes. Things will be ugly for a while I think.

If things do get to a point where it might get really dangerously ugly, Brasil will look good and you guys are invited.

[Finnster]

Originally Posted by lutach

If things do get to a point where it might get really dangerously ugly, Brasil will look good and you guys are invited.

After watching that pizza vid, I've already packed a set of bags. Now I know the right town to go to too. ;)

Grab a set of wheels for Harold, and we are out of here.

Its funny, as I've heard a lot of the "undocumented" workers have been leaving the US and going back to Mex bc contruction has just died off. If Slim keeps doing as well as he is, it may be Americans sneaking across the border south looking for jobs.

Yo conoce un poco de espanol, pero no tengo ningun idea de la lengua portuguesa.

[Finnster]

Originally Posted by Finnster

Its astounding, the mess we've worked ourselves into for the last 30 yrs. I bet 2009 will go down as one of the biggest wealth transfers in history.


I'm cautiously optimistic for 2010. What I am hoping to see is moderate eco and job growth starting in the next few months. Sounds like businesses have quite a bit of cash (the ones doing well at least) so there should be some interesting activity. I think the US eco will be fairly resiliant.

However, a few things to really watch for, or at least my predictions/guesses for 2010.

A.) Its an election year. Never underestimate the stupidity of politicians to screw things up (goes for any party) and sabotage a recovery for personal gain.

B.) Smaller world economies destabilizing. Greece, Spain, Iceland, etc. Greece had Goldman Sachs papering over their debt. Makes you wonder where else this will be discovered. Latvia sounds in a bad way too. Could be tip of an iceberg.

C.) The debt. I thought last yr Obama basically had two years to run the high deficits to try and get the eco going. We'll see how it works. No doubt tax increases, spending cuts and entitlement reform are coming next year. It will be as well recieved as the austerity cuts in Greece are being recieved now. It will also be up to Congress to make the cuts into law. It will be highly unpopular, and Congress is pretty disfunctional as it is just doing popular things.

D.) People and business are going to be pissed come 2011. Job growth is prolly going to be slow even best case scenario. Raising taxes and pension ages will not go down well. Not doing it will be even worse.

Overall, I am hopeful for 2010 as far as stocks go (dep on jobs/gdp growth.) As Nov comes around, I think things will get very dicey, and 2011 could be a very ugly year. IDK if I want to be in the market then (leaning towards no until the dust settles.) Lots of variables and unknowns can occur. I bet a lot a lot of other people will keep one hand on the exit door.

Bad bad bad. I don't like things one bit. I waited for a bit of a rally in June from the bloodbath in May and sold out a good bit of my RL holdings to cash, such as in my 401k and stuff last week. I'm wishing now I sold more.
May be reactionary, but I don't like things at all. The things I was hoping to see above are not happening, (ie job/gdp growth.) The roots of the "green shoots" seem shallow and weak. I don't like the way the political winds are blowing either.

Maybe its dumb fleeing to cash, but it all seems too risky to me. I had hoped we might be able to escape history, with the bear market rallies and double dips such as in the 30's, but I'm worried its just not going to go. Better to have some cash for when we bottom out again and hopefully relive to bulls of 2009.

[Finnster]

Originally Posted by lutach

The smell of money:

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work...lionaires-2010

Edit: Someone familiar is in 8th place .

No wonder you are doing so well in the game, Bastitas have the touch :) Few more mos and you'll be up there w/ him. I'd like to see that family reunion.

No doubt last year was going to be a banner year for those poised to take advantage of it. I tried to get in there and do the best as I could, but I have nowhere near the resources and understanding of the world and business those guys do. The latter is what I really envy. I wouldn't want the burden and responsibility of so much wealth, but I wish I understood the world so much better than I do.
So much goes on at their level. I feel like I could be good enough at the game, if I only knew what game was being played and what the rules are. lol
Unfortunately, so much of the day is spent between work and family responsibilities, there is little time left to really spend trying to learn this stuff.

[lutach]

Originally Posted by Finnster

No wonder you are doing so well in the game, Bastitas have the touch :) Few more mos and you'll be up there w/ him. I'd like to see that family reunion.

No doubt last year was going to be a banner year for those poised to take advantage of it. I tried to get in there and do the best as I could, but I have nowhere near the resources and understanding of the world and business those guys do. The latter is what I really envy. I wouldn't want the burden and responsibility of so much wealth, but I wish I understood the world so much better than I do.
So much goes on at their level. I feel like I could be good enough at the game, if I only knew what game was being played and what the rules are. lol
Unfortunately, so much of the day is spent between work and family responsibilities, there is little time left to really spend trying to learn this stuff.

I don't know what you're talking about . I just got lucky in the game and I don't mess with stocks in RL anymore

My little one keeps me busy before school and after school. In between I try to relax and not let my clients bug me.

[Finnster]

Originally Posted by lutach

I don't know what you're talking about . I just got lucky in the game and I don't mess with stocks in RL anymore

My little one keeps me busy before school and after school. In between I try to relax and not let my clients bug me.

My wife is a Forbes. We were sailing on the hudson once when his yacht was going by upriver (you know it when you see it.) I suggested we go by and see if cousin would let us on board and have a look around.
We just set a different tack to windward instead.

;)

[lutach]

Originally Posted by Finnster

My wife is a Forbes. We were sailing on the hudson once when his yacht was going by upriver (you know it when you see it.) I suggested we go by and see if cousin would let us on board and have a look around.
We just set a different tack to windward instead.

;)

Should I change my name and forge my birth certificate? It is odd that the richest guy in Brasil was born in the same city I was, have the same last name and my grandfather used to work a Vale do Rio Doce (Ticker: VALE) . I just hope nobody starts a new conspiracy thread .