Stock Market Game

[Finnster]

lol, I'm not sure I know anything you don't already know about.
I'm mostly heavy on oils and energy, seems the more reliable play as long as the eco doesn't crap out amd prices stay higher. A lot of companies got killed last year, and low prices didn't help either. Some are doing much better now w/ the increased oil prices, and 2010 earnings should be better than '09 as long as prices stay up and if they didn't get buried in debt. Energy is more dependent on world eco than just the US, so spreads out risk a bit. Hopefully. :)

Other than that just picked up some beatdown losers w/ potential to pick back up a bit. May take a while tho. Nothing terribly exciting. We are coming close to 52wk highs again, so I'm wary of a pullback. Prolly will happen w/ my game portfolio, so hopefully I spent my buying power well while I had it. What I'd really like to see are some job growth #'s, even if its meager. It seems like there are signs it might be coming, but until it really does, everything is pretty tenuous. There are alot of things that can frag the whole thing up.

Just curious on your heavy movement into C (in the game not RL.) I've never really understood the heavy trading in C beyond daytraders and speculators. Fundamentals seem pretty bad, and there are so many wildcards there w. the lg govt ownership and all the other nonsense that goes on w/ the banks. I did buy some financials funds in RL last year after the crash, but I sold those off in Oct and haven't looked back. Made good $ off those, but way too risky for my tastes now even if the Fed is just printing money for them.

In the game I got a small 1% position on C. Seemed low and looked like was due for a bit of a run, but if it hits $4.50 I'd be happy. Otherwise just wild speculation. Given all your grandslams so far, I was just wondering if you were looking for something bigger.

[lutach]

Originally Posted by Finnster

lol, I'm not sure I know anything you don't already know about.
I'm mostly heavy on oils and energy, seems the more reliable play as long as the eco doesn't crap out amd prices stay higher. A lot of companies got killed last year, and low prices didn't help either. Some are doing much better now w/ the increased oil prices, and 2010 earnings should be better than '09 as long as prices stay up and if they didn't get buried in debt. Energy is more dependent on world eco than just the US, so spreads out risk a bit. Hopefully. :)

Other than that just picked up some beatdown losers w/ potential to pick back up a bit. May take a while tho. Nothing terribly exciting. We are coming close to 52wk highs again, so I'm wary of a pullback. Prolly will happen w/ my game portfolio, so hopefully I spent my buying power well while I had it. What I'd really like to see are some job growth #'s, even if its meager. It seems like there are signs it might be coming, but until it really does, everything is pretty tenuous. There are alot of things that can frag the whole thing up.

Just curious on your heavy movement into C (in the game not RL.) I've never really understood the heavy trading in C beyond daytraders and speculators. Fundamentals seem pretty bad, and there are so many wildcards there w. the lg govt ownership and all the other nonsense that goes on w/ the banks. I did buy some financials funds in RL last year after the crash, but I sold those off in Oct and haven't looked back. Made good $ off those, but way too risky for my tastes now even if the Fed is just printing money for them.

In the game I got a small 1% position on C. Seemed low and looked like was due for a bit of a run, but if it hits $4.50 I'd be happy. Otherwise just wild speculation. Given all your grandslams so far, I was just wondering if you were looking for something bigger.

I learn new things everyday . I like how you think and it's always good to bet on things people need, specially in colder climates.

A pullback will come. People like to take profits and sometimes a panic will happen, but it's just part of the market.

Well, the real story goes deeper, but I'll keep it simple. I had a choice of companies such as BofA, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and a few other big financial. Out of the big ones out there, which is the cheapest? I think Citi is. If you bought it in RL for $3.50, then you would've been in good shape depending on how many share you bought. Keep in mind, Citi was one of the biggest if not the biggest company at a certain time. Greed is the name of the game and all investors should be greedy. If they want they can push the stock up to the moon. I would love to say more, but it would make me feel bad if what I say turns out to be a bad bet. I go with gut feeling even if the company is the worst in the world. I also don't think the US Gov. likes to loose money.

[Finnster]

Originally Posted by lutach

I learn new things everyday . I like how you think and it's always good to bet on things people need, specially in colder climates.

A pullback will come. People like to take profits and sometimes a panic will happen, but it's just part of the market.

Well, the real story goes deeper, but I'll keep it simple. I had a choice of companies such as BofA, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and a few other big financial. Out of the big ones out there, which is the cheapest? I think Citi is. If you bought it in RL for $3.50, then you would've been in good shape depending on how many share you bought. Keep in mind, Citi was one of the biggest if not the biggest company at a certain time. Greed is the name of the game and all investors should be greedy. If they want they can push the stock up to the moon. I would love to say more, but it would make me feel bad if what I say turns out to be a bad bet. I go with gut feeling even if the company is the worst in the world. I also don't think the US Gov. likes to loose money.

Ironic thing to say about someone who is $10T+ in debt, then again, when push comes to shove, I'm very sure in their ability to make things come out as a winner when they need it to. If anything, prolly gives them more incentive for things to come out a plus.

I do share your thoughts on the "when" aspect of it. I know a guy at work who bought C @ $1 a year ago. Had I some more spare cash to gamble with, I would have done the same. However, once it was up to $4 in april and Geithner was releasing the "stress test" results, I would have taken my money and ran (I even half jokingly said this to him when we were talking then.) A yr later and the F'ing stock is still @ $4, while the rest of the market is up 60-70%. He still has that stock and is still waiting for it to do something. Supposedly the gov't is going to try and cash out this yr, and Citi has been selling things off to pay debts, I just couldn't guess what the stock will be like as that happens, and what will remain of the company as it sells off the parts of it anybody else actually wants.


Makes me wonder about the whole Toyota thing as well. Obviously Toyota has made some mistakes, but its not hard to imagine the whole recall and safety controversy isn't being played up to beat down foriegn car makers when the domestics are the weakest they have ever been (excl F,) and the govt overseeing the car safety regs also owns the top competitor, all in the largest car market in the world. GM IPO in 2011 IIRC right?

[lutach]

Originally Posted by Finnster

Ironic thing to say about someone who is $10T+ in debt, then again, when push comes to shove, I'm very sure in their ability to make things come out as a winner when they need it to. If anything, prolly gives them more incentive for things to come out a plus.

I do share your thoughts on the "when" aspect of it. I know a guy at work who bought C @ $1 a year ago. Had I some more spare cash to gamble with, I would have done the same. However, once it was up to $4 in april and Geithner was releasing the "stress test" results, I would have taken my money and ran (I even half jokingly said this to him when we were talking then.) A yr later and the F'ing stock is still @ $4, while the rest of the market is up 60-70%. He still has that stock and is still waiting for it to do something. Supposedly the gov't is going to try and cash out this yr, and Citi has been selling things off to pay debts, I just couldn't guess what the stock will be like as that happens, and what will remain of the company as it sells off the parts of it anybody else actually wants.


Makes me wonder about the whole Toyota thing as well. Obviously Toyota has made some mistakes, but its not hard to imagine the whole recall and safety controversy isn't being played up to beat down foriegn car makers when the domestics are the weakest they have ever been (excl F,) and the govt overseeing the car safety regs also owns the top competitor, all in the largest car market in the world. GM IPO in 2011 IIRC right?

The $10T+ should be close to $15T+ . I agree with the rest .

I don't think they'll sell C just yet. Something might push the stock higher as others got pushed on what might be media hype and other things depending on the industry.

The Toyota thing to me is just a big set up by who knows who . I heard the 911 call from that 90MPH+ Prius and it was just plain simple BS. The 911 dispatcher said 2 times if the dumb ass had put the car on neutral, but the dumb ass didn't and probably acted like he didn't know what to do. A lot of people lack the simple thing called common sense and I know people in other places are about that joker. I would definitely not let him drive again. Toyota should get smart and find the source of the problem, isn't most parts for their vehicles sourced out? Everything just sounds strange, specially when other auto makers take advantage of the problems.

[Finnster]

Originally Posted by lutach

The $10T+ should be close to $15T+ . I agree with the rest .

I don't think they'll sell C just yet. Something might push the stock higher as others got pushed on what might be media hype and other things depending on the industry.

The Toyota thing to me is just a big set up by who knows who . I heard the 911 call from that 90MPH+ Prius and it was just plain simple BS. The 911 dispatcher said 2 times if the dumb ass had put the car on neutral, but the dumb ass didn't and probably acted like he didn't know what to do. A lot of people lack the simple thing called common sense and I know people in other places are about that joker. I would definitely not let him drive again. Toyota should get smart and find the source of the problem, isn't most parts for their vehicles sourced out? Everything just sounds strange, specially when other auto makers take advantage of the problems.

I saw some of that call during lunch today. I liked the part where the guy called in saying his car wouldn't stop, and the dispatcher responded by asking what Toyota he drove. HA!!!!1

IDK about the rest. Could be the guy was freaking out and not thinking, or he may be the next balloon boy. Time will tell. What I don't like about all the drive by wire stuff is that you are not in control of the car anymore. You push the brake and hope that the computer decides to listen to you.
I also heard some advice from Toyota that to turn off the car (if its speeding out of control) is to hold down the "start button" for 3s, then the car will stop. Sounded like they are changing some of the programming, such as a brake signal will override a accel signal (brilliant!). What BS.
Thought I also heard that the car will lock out shifting to Neutral if you are driving, as Toyota assumes to are too fraking stupid to know how to drive, and you didn't really mean to do what you said and should be ignored. I thought this was the case in that runaway Lexus case. The driver (a cop even) had a rental Lexus, it took off on him, he calls 911 as he's going 100mph and already burned out his brakes from standing on them. If it won't shift to N, brakes don't work, and there is no key to turn off, WTF do you do? You are strapped to a 350hp 4000lb rocket and are just hoping for the best.


Personally, I like my manual and having control over my car. If I want to take it out of gear, I press in the clutch.


I did read also that alot of these car companies don't design their own parts anymore, and more function as integrators of 3rd party sourced parts. These parts may also be shared across many car co's if they use the same source company. GM may be using some of these pedals.

Edit: thought I did hear Mark Zandi quote $14T as the debt the other day. Ah, whats a few trillion between friends?

[lutach]

Originally Posted by Finnster

I saw some of that call during lunch today. I liked the part where the guy called in saying his car wouldn't stop, and the dispatcher responded by asking what Toyota he drove. HA!!!!1

IDK about the rest. Could be the guy was freaking out and not thinking, or he may be the next balloon boy. Time will tell. What I don't like about all the drive by wire stuff is that you are not in control of the car anymore. You push the brake and hope that the computer decides to listen to you.
I also heard some advice from Toyota that to turn off the car (if its speeding out of control) is to hold down the "start button" for 3s, then the car will stop. Sounded like they are changing some of the programming, such as a brake signal will override a accel signal (brilliant!). What BS.
Thought I also heard that the car will lock out shifting to Neutral if you are driving, as Toyota assumes to are too fraking stupid to know how to drive, and you didn't really mean to do what you said and should be ignored. I thought this was the case in that runaway Lexus case. The driver (a cop even) had a rental Lexus, it took off on him, he calls 911 as he's going 100mph and already burned out his brakes from standing on them. If it won't shift to N, brakes don't work, and there is no key to turn off, WTF do you do? You are strapped to a 350hp 4000lb rocket and are just hoping for the best.


Personally, I like my manual and having control over my car. If I want to take it out of gear, I press in the clutch.


I did read also that alot of these car companies don't design their own parts anymore, and more function as integrators of 3rd party sourced parts. These parts may also be shared across many car co's if they use the same source company. GM may be using some of these pedals.

Edit: thought I did hear Mark Zandi quote $14T as the debt the other day. Ah, whats a few trillion between friends?

Here's a good one. You don't hear this happening else where. That one lady host in CNBC went to Brasil and spoke with a couple of the auto industry's CEOs there and they were not going through the same thing US was going through. It seems like technology is getting to a point where the Wall-E movie will come true one day. People are putting their faith more and more on technology. Is Facebook worth $11 billion dollars? That tell it all . Why all of a sudden people need to be on Facebook, Twitter and others alike. They even look at someone the wrong way if you're not in those places (Me ). Here's what I hear: You're not on Facebook or Twitter, what's wrong with you? I tell them I'm not stupid and it's much better to talk to your school friend face to face. Do you know someone that doesn't have a cell phone? I do, me . I tell everyone that I don't buy a new car and I don't. I always put my car in neutral when I see a red light and not only that, my right hand is always on the gear shifter (Don't get any ideas Harold and James). I do miss my manual cars. I can't wait to start making my own car and hear all the crap like: No place to hook my Ipod, no mirror behind the visor and no TV. I will include a radio with a navigation system which might be useful.

Wow, that's a lot of typing . Good thing I don't sell to the auto companies here in the US, they would probably find a way to set me up some how .

I sure hope $14 or $15T+ is the only number showing , but I hear that number is only getting bigger, much bigger.

[Finnster]

$11B.. lol Makes you wonder what RCM is worth.
Facebook and twitter? IDK, I don't get it. Maybe I'm just getting old, but I have desire to twat to strangers on the internet what I'm having for lunch, and I can't understand why anyone would care. Seems very narcissistic to me.

Then again, I do have a smartphone I love (RCM now lives in my pocket lol), but I haven't had cable or sat TV in my house since 2003. The $8500 it would have cost me since then would have truly bought me nothing.

[lutach]

Originally Posted by Finnster

$11B.. lol Makes you wonder what RCM is worth.
Facebook and twitter? IDK, I don't get it. Maybe I'm just getting old, but I have desire to twat to strangers on the internet what I'm having for lunch, and I can't understand why anyone would care. Seems very narcissistic to me.

Then again, I do have a smartphone I love (RCM now lives in my pocket lol), but I haven't had cable or sat TV in my house since 2003. The $8500 it would have cost me since then would have truly bought me nothing.

RCM is priceless. I should make Carabook or Rostobook (cara and rosto means face in Portuguese) and Pipiutter (pipiu is the noise a bird makes in Portuguese). Holy crap, I'll take $1B for each . Just wait until shit happens to the internet. I guess the ones doing all the wrong hate when the real info can be found over the net. Good thing you're saving all that money, there's hardly anything good on TV nowadays. I do enjoy auto racing and Futebol. I have a blast with the other stuff. You should see how the truth can be found in cartoons, but people don't think nothing of it .

[lutach]

The smell of money:

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work...lionaires-2010

Edit: Someone familiar is in 8th place .

[lutach]

Finnster,

Here are a few numbers for the Debt:

US National Debt: $12,516,4XX,XXX,XXX.XX
US Federal Spending: $3,538,8XX,XXX,XXX.XX

So far the Debt per Citizen is just over $40K and the Debt per Taxpayer is just over $114K.

Here's the shocker.

US Total Debt: $54,754,4XX,XXX,XXX.XX

(The X donates to the amount that might change daily).

Remember when I said watch the billionaires. Amazing how that Brasilian guy made over $19B. A few made over $10B which is amazing.

[Finnster]

Originally Posted by lutach

The smell of money:

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work...lionaires-2010

Edit: Someone familiar is in 8th place .

No wonder you are doing so well in the game, Bastitas have the touch :) Few more mos and you'll be up there w/ him. I'd like to see that family reunion.

No doubt last year was going to be a banner year for those poised to take advantage of it. I tried to get in there and do the best as I could, but I have nowhere near the resources and understanding of the world and business those guys do. The latter is what I really envy. I wouldn't want the burden and responsibility of so much wealth, but I wish I understood the world so much better than I do.
So much goes on at their level. I feel like I could be good enough at the game, if I only knew what game was being played and what the rules are. lol
Unfortunately, so much of the day is spent between work and family responsibilities, there is little time left to really spend trying to learn this stuff.

[Finnster]

On my other stocks, I had picked up FHCO in Jan for ~$4.60 and was excited for that. Unfortunately I sold it off (trying to buy more in Feb.) I had put in a limit order at the same price to buy it back, but missed it as it was not GTC. Dammit. Let it slip my mind and didn't go back to it.

Looked at it today as its had moved nicely upto $7, went to go look at the earnings and remembered I didn't go back and put in another order. Ack..... should have just done a market order.

[Finnster]

Originally Posted by lutach

Finnster,

Here are a few numbers for the Debt:

US National Debt: $12,516,4XX,XXX,XXX.XX
US Federal Spending: $3,538,8XX,XXX,XXX.XX

So far the Debt per Citizen is just over $40K and the Debt per Taxpayer is just over $114K.

Here's the shocker.

US Total Debt: $54,754,4XX,XXX,XXX.XX

(The X donates to the amount that might change daily).

Remember when I said watch the billionaires. Amazing how that Brasilian guy made over $19B. A few made over $10B which is amazing.

Its astounding, the mess we've worked ourselves into for the last 30 yrs. I bet 2009 will go down as one of the biggest wealth transfers in history.


I'm cautiously optimistic for 2010. What I am hoping to see is moderate eco and job growth starting in the next few months. Sounds like businesses have quite a bit of cash (the ones doing well at least) so there should be some interesting activity. I think the US eco will be fairly resiliant.

However, a few things to really watch for, or at least my predictions/guesses for 2010.

A.) Its an election year. Never underestimate the stupidity of politicians to screw things up (goes for any party) and sabotage a recovery for personal gain.

B.) Smaller world economies destabilizing. Greece, Spain, Iceland, etc. Greece had Goldman Sachs papering over their debt. Makes you wonder where else this will be discovered. Latvia sounds in a bad way too. Could be tip of an iceberg.

C.) The debt. I thought last yr Obama basically had two years to run the high deficits to try and get the eco going. We'll see how it works. No doubt tax increases, spending cuts and entitlement reform are coming next year. It will be as well recieved as the austerity cuts in Greece are being recieved now. It will also be up to Congress to make the cuts into law. It will be highly unpopular, and Congress is pretty disfunctional as it is just doing popular things.

D.) People and business are going to be pissed come 2011. Job growth is prolly going to be slow even best case scenario. Raising taxes and pension ages will not go down well. Not doing it will be even worse.

Overall, I am hopeful for 2010 as far as stocks go (dep on jobs/gdp growth.) As Nov comes around, I think things will get very dicey, and 2011 could be a very ugly year. IDK if I want to be in the market then (leaning towards no until the dust settles.) Lots of variables and unknowns can occur. I bet a lot a lot of other people will keep one hand on the exit door.

[lutach]

Originally Posted by Finnster

No wonder you are doing so well in the game, Bastitas have the touch :) Few more mos and you'll be up there w/ him. I'd like to see that family reunion.

No doubt last year was going to be a banner year for those poised to take advantage of it. I tried to get in there and do the best as I could, but I have nowhere near the resources and understanding of the world and business those guys do. The latter is what I really envy. I wouldn't want the burden and responsibility of so much wealth, but I wish I understood the world so much better than I do.
So much goes on at their level. I feel like I could be good enough at the game, if I only knew what game was being played and what the rules are. lol
Unfortunately, so much of the day is spent between work and family responsibilities, there is little time left to really spend trying to learn this stuff.

I don't know what you're talking about . I just got lucky in the game and I don't mess with stocks in RL anymore

My little one keeps me busy before school and after school. In between I try to relax and not let my clients bug me.

[lutach]

Originally Posted by Finnster

On my other stocks, I had picked up FHCO in Jan for ~$4.60 and was excited for that. Unfortunately I sold it off (trying to buy more in Feb.) I had put in a limit order at the same price to buy it back, but missed it as it was not GTC. Dammit. Let it slip my mind and didn't go back to it.

Looked at it today as its had moved nicely upto $7, went to go look at the earnings and remembered I didn't go back and put in another order. Ack..... should have just done a market order.

Most of the time I let my gut feeling do the trading and those are in the super green and the ones in super red are the ones I used my brain to pick . In the game I only do market orders.